Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
