A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
